Running into my recruitment peer. Are we recovering from recession yet? ❄️
Last week, I ran into a recruitment peer at the gym.
We hadn't seen each other in ages, so we spent 30 minutes updating each other on the market.
What she told me stayed with me.
She feels the recruitment market is dying down.
Most of the back office roles she used to place are being outsourced outside of Hong Kong.
These days, she mostly works regional roles based out of HK.
Her prediction?
The market has a few profitable years left at most and 2027 will be worse than 2026 📉
When I asked about her future plans, she's already considering switching to other sales roles.
It reminded me of Game of Thrones.
Is winter really coming? 🐺
Are we at the bottom of recession and rebounding?
Let's look at the evidence:
🔹 2023–2025:
The market was brutal. Many recruiters left the industry. Some moved in-house to HR or TA, others left entirely
🔹 2026:
A mixed picture. My revenue improved. Other teams' revenue improved. That means hiring picked up 📈 Rental market went up.
But at the same time...
🔹 My classmates in back office roles earning HK$70k+ monthly? Restructured.
🔹 Teams are getting leaner and leaner. One person is doing multiple jobs.
🔹 Recent grads tell me they applied to 60 jobs and got only 5 interviews in 6 months. A few have been jobless since January — busy interviewing, still pending feedback.
🔹 And the restructuring news keeps coming.. Canva, Microsoft, major banks, HSBC, SCB. You name it.
So is this year's recovery in HK just short-term?
Honestly? I don't know.
I think it depends on one thing: the speed of AI adoption in Hong Kong 🤖
If replacing people with AI becomes the norm here, my forecast is the market trends downward.
So tell me 👇
How's the job market feeling in YOUR industry right now — recovering or freezing?
And do you think AI will replace roles in HK faster than we expect?
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